2021-11-19 Archiv

Oversampling.

Buses and trains are supposed to arrive at constant intervals, but in practice some intervals are longer than others. With your luck, you might think you are more likely to arrive during a long interval. It turns out you are right: a random arrival is more likely to fall in a long interval because, well, it’s longer.

Probably Overthinking It (Allen Downey): The Inspection Paradox is Everywhere